Российский природный газ на мировом рынке: потенциал, стратегии и прогнозы

Исследование «Российский природный газ на мировом рынке: потенциал, стратегии и прогнозы» анализирует позиции Газпрома на существующих и перспективных экспортных рынках и содержит детальные профили 42 стран-импортеров.

 
Уникальной особенностью исследования является анализ чистой цены экспортных поставок Газпрома до российской границы по каждой из европейских стран-экспортеров.

 
Основные данные, включенные в каждый из профилей:

• текущий энергетический баланс страны;
• газотранспортная инрфаструктура: текущее состояние и перспективы развития;
• динамика потребления природного газа и доля российского газа в общем объеме импорта;
• партнеры Газпрома и взаимоотношения с ними;
• деятельность дочерних и аффилированных компаний Газпрома на территории страны;
• факторы, влияющие на увеличение/уменьшение Газпромом объемов поставок природного газа;
• прогнозные объемы экспортируемого Газпромом газа (в натуральном и денежном выражении) до 2020 года;
• прогнозные цены экспортных поставок до российской границы до 2020 года.

«Российский природный газ на мировом рынке: потенциал, стратегии и прогнозы» предлагает три возможных сценария развития экспортной политики Газпрома в 2008 – 2020 гг. В их основе лежат:

• динамика спроса на природный газ в Европе, Странах Ближнего Зарубежья, Северо-восточной Азии, Северной Америке;
• законтрактованные экспортные объемы природного газа, текущие и планируемые;
• прогноз цен на природный газ на экспортных рынках;
• динамика реализации текущих и запланированных проектов Газпрома по добыче и транспортировке природного газа;
• расходы по транспортировке российского газа и экспортные пошлины

При написании сценариев принимались во внимание новые газотранспортные проекты, такие как «Южный поток».

 
«Российский природный газ на мировом рынке: потенциал, стратегии и прогнозы» является источником ценной информации для:

• энергетических институтов и ассоциаций;
• газодобывающих компаний;
• энергетических компани1 и других потребителей природного газа
• транспортных компаний, дистрибьюторов и трейдеров;
• финансовых и инвестиционных институтов;
• подрядчиков и поставщиков оборудования.

1. Russia and the Global Natural Gas Market
Executive summary
2. Russian Gas Reserves

2.1. Overview of Russian gas reserves
2.2. Onshore and offshore gas reserves relevant for gas exports
2.3. Gazprom’s proved gas reserves
2.4. The struggle for most important gas reserves: Gazprom vs the independents 2002-2007
2.5. Conclusions

3. Russian gas production: current situation and future development

3.1. Production in Russia: from the start of development of gas fields in Western Siberia to 2001
3.2. Gazprom’s production development from 2001 to 2006
3.3. Gazprom gas production in future: goals, investment needs and opportunities of realization
        Yamal
        Eastern Siberia and Far East

        Shtokmanovskoye field
3.4. Conclusions

4. Russian gas pipeline transportation system
4.1. The United Gas Transmission System of Russia
4.2. Gazprom’s future export transportation projects
       4.2.1. Nord Stream
       4.2.2. South Stream
       4.2.3. Altai
       4.2.4. Export gas pipelines of Eastern Siberia and Far East
       4.2.5. Caspian Coastal Gas Pipeline (Pre-Caspian pipeline)
       4.2.6. Baltic LNG
4.3. Conclusions

5. Current and Prospective Country Markets for Russian Gas
5.1. Western Europe 
       5.1.1. Belgium 
       5.1.2. France 
       5.1.3. Germany 
       5.1.4. Italy 
       5.1.5. The Netherlands 
       5.1.6. Portugal 
       5.1.7. Spain 
       5.1.8. Switzerland 
       5.1.9. United Kingdom
5.2 Northern Europe
       5.2.1. Denmark
       5.2.2. Finland

       5.2.3. Sweden

5.3 Central Europe

       5.3.1. Austria
       5.3.2. Czech Republic
       5.3.3. Slovakia
       5.3.4. Poland
5.4. South Eastern Europe
       5.4.1. Albania
       5.4.2. Bosnia and Herzegovina
       5.4.3. Bulgaria
       5.4.4. Croatia
       5.4.5. Greece
       5.4.6. Hungary
       5.4.7. Macedonia
       5.4.8. Montenegro
       5.4.9. Romania
       5.4.10. Serbia
       5.4.11. Slovenia
       5.4.12. Turkey
5.5 FSU
       5.5.1. Armenia
       5.5.2. Azerbaijan
       5.5.3. Georgia
       5.5.4. Belarus
       5.5.5. Ukraine
       5.5.6. Moldova
       5.5.7. Latvia
       5.5.8. Lithuania
       5.5.9. Estonia
5.6. North-Eastern Asia
       5.6.1. China (PRC)
       5.6.2. Japan
       5.6.3. South Korea
       5.6.4. Taiwan
       5.6.5. United States

6. Russian exports up to 2020: the scenarios
6.1. Key trends in development
6.2. Russian gas export scenarios out to 2020
       6.2.1. The ‘White’ scenario with oil prices above US$ 70 per barrel
       6.2.2. The ‘Blue’ scenario with oil prices ranging from US$ 55 to US$ 70 per barrel
       6.2.3. The ‘Red’ scenario with oil prices ranging from US$ 40 to US$ 55 per barrel
6.3. Conclusion

Figure 1.1. World gas reserves in 2006
Figure 1.2. World gas production in 2006
Figure 1.3. Gas consumption in Russia by sector in 2006
Figure 1.4. Gazprom market capitalization growth 2001-2007 (US$ billion)
Figure 1.5. Direct government equity ownership in Gazprom (%)
Figure 1.6. Gas supplies to Europe from Gazprom and other sources 1989-2006 (bcm)
Figure 1.7. Importance of gas exports for Gazprom in 2004 and 2006
Figure 1.8. Priorities of Gazprom’s gas business development
Figure 1.9. Russian gas sales to FSU countries and export gas prices in 2000 - 2006
Figure 1.10. Russian gas sales to Europe (excluding FSU) and export gas prices in 2000-2006
Figure 1.11. Diversification of Gazprom’s export activity
Figure 1.12. Scenarios for exports of gas produced in Russia in 2006, 2010, 2015 and 2020
Figure 1.13. Three forecast scenarios for oil price changes out to 2020 (US$ per barrel)
Figure 1.14. Euro to dollar exchange rate dynamics in 2008-2020
Figure 2.1. Proved gas reserves in Russia as of Dec 31, 2006
Figure 2.2. Proved gas reserves of Eastern Siberia and Far East of Russia as compared to proved reserves of the Asia-Pacific countries (tcm)
Figure 2.3. International audit of Gazprom’s gas reserves in comparison with Russian reserve system (tcm)
Figure 2.4. Territory distribution of Gazprom’s gas reserves in Russia, as of Dec 31, 2006 (ABC1 reserves, tcm)
Figure 2.5. Gazprom’s largest gas fields (ABC1 reserves, tcm)
Figure 2.6. Reserves replacement by Gazprom in 1997-2006 (bcm)
Figure 2.7. Exploration expenditures and growth of proved gas reserves at Gazprom
Figure 2.8. Gazprom’s efforts to increase its resource base in 2001-2006 and near-term prospects
Figure 3.1. Gas production during the Soviet period in Russia 1970-1991 (bcm)
Figure 3.2. Russian gas production during the period of reforms (1991-2006) (bcm)
Figure 3.3. Gazprom gas production and investment in production since between 2000 and 2006
Figure 3.4. Gas wells in Gazprom in 2001-2006 (wells in operation and constructed new wells)
Figure 3.5. Feasibility of Gazprom’s piority projects in respect of possible destined consumers markets in 2005 and 2007 in agreement with current gas prices
Figure 3.6. Gasprom gas production in old gas provinces between 2007 and 2020
Figure 3.7. Possible gas production in Yamal Peninsula the first 10 years of production and up to the maximal level at 250 bcm per year
Figure 3.8. The maximum gas production in Eastern Siberia and Far East up to 2020 bcm
Figure 3.9. Gas production volumes growth up to the level of 67.5 bcm and 90 bcm
Figure 3.10. Potential distribution of gas supply from the Shtokmanovskoye field at a production level of 90 bcm
Figure 3.11. Possible maximal level of gas production in new production centers, controlled by Gazprom in 2020 (bcm)
Figure 4.1. Gazprom pipelines by pipe diameter in 2006
Figure 4.2. The age of Gazprom’s pipelines
Figure 4.3. Length of Gazprom’s pipeline system (‘000 km)
Figure 4.4. Capital expenditures in transportation and storage (US$ billion)
Figure 4.5. Development of underground gas storage in Russia
Figure 4.6. Priorities of UGTS development
Figure 4.7.Nord Stream ownership structure after anticipated entry of Gasunie in 2007
Figure 4.8. Nord Stream organizational chart
Figure 4.9. Planning gas deliveries to China via Altai pipeline
Figure 4.10. Maximum potential expansion of gas transportation capacity to Europe by Gazprom
Figure 5.1.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Belgium in 2006
Figure 5.1.1.2. Gas imports to Belgium in 2006
Figure 5.1.1.3. Interconnector shareholder structure
Figure 5.1.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in France in 2006
Figure 5.1.2.2. Areas of GRTgaz company’s investments till 2016 (million Euro)
Figure 5.1.2.3. Gas imports to France in 2006
Figure 5.1.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Germany in 2006
Figure 5.1.3.2. Gas imports to Germany in 2006
Figure 5.1.3.3. Structure of WINGAS
Figure 5.1.4.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Italy in 2006
Figure 5.1.4.2. Gas imports to Italy in 2006
Figure 5.1.5.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in the Netherlands in 2006
Figure 5.1.5.2. Gas imports to the Netherlands in 2006
Figure 5.1.5.3. BBL shareholder structure
Figure 5.1.6.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Portugal in 2006
Figure 5.1.7.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Spain in 2006
Figure 5.1.7.2. Gas imports to Spain in 2006
Figure 5.1.8.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Switzerland in 2006
Figure 5.1.8.2. Gas imports to Switzerland in 2006
Figure 5.1.9.1.Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in the United Kingdom in 2006
Figure 5.1.9.2. Gas imports to the United Kingdom in 2006
Figure 5.1.9.3. Outlook for FOB prices of Russian LNG exports to the United Kingdom in Teriberka (Euro/1,000 cubic meters)
Figure 5.2.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Denmark in 2006
Figure 5.2.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Finland in 2006
Figure 5.2.2.2. Gasum shareholder structure
Figure 5.2.2.3. Russian gas supplies to Finland (bcm)
Figure 5.2.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Sweden in 2006
Figure 5.3.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Austria in 2006
Figure 5.3.1.2. Gas imports to Austria in 2006
Figure 5.3.1.3. GWH shareholder structure
Figure 5.3.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Czech Republic in 2006
Figure 5.3.2.2. Gas imports to Czech Republic in 2006
Figure 5.3.2.3. Transit of Russian gas via Czech Republic (bcm)
Figure 5.3.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Slovakia in 2006
Figure 5.3.3.2. Transit of Russian gas via Slovakia (bcm) 203
Figure 5.3.4.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Poland in 2006
Figure 5.3.4.2. Gas imports to Poland in 2006
Figure 5.3.4.3. Transit of Russian gas via Poland (bcm)
Figure 5.3.4.4. EuRoPol GAZ shareholder structure
Figure 5.4.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Albania in 2006
Figure 5.4.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2006
Figure 5.4.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Bulgaria in 2006
Figure 5.4.3.2. Transit of Russian gas via Bulgaria in 2006
Table 5.4.3.2. Outlook for Russian gas exports to Bulgaria and netback prices to the Russian border (2008-2020)
Figure 5.4.4.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Croatia in 2006
Figure 5.4.5.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Greece in 2006
Figure 5.4.6.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Hungary in 2006
Figure 5.4.6.2. Gas imports to Hungary in 2006
Figuire 5.4.6.3. Panrusgas shareholder structure
Figure 5.4.7.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Macedonia in 2006
Figure 5.4.7.2. Gas deliveries to Macedonia in 2000-2006 (mcm)
Figure 5.4.9.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Romania in 2006
Figure 5.4.9.2. Gas imports to Romania in 2006 (bcm)
Figure 5.4.10.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Serbia and Montenegro in 2006
Figure 5.4.11.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Slovenia in 2006
Figure 5.4.11.2. Gas imports to Slovenia in 2006
Figure 5.4.11.3. Transit of gas via Slovenia (bcm)
Figure 5.4.12.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Turkey in 2006
Figure 5.4.12.2. Turusgaz shareholder structure
Figure 5.5.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Armenia in 2006
Figure 5.5.1.2. ArmRosgazprom shareholders structure

Figure 5.5.1.3. Russian gas supplies to Armenia in 2002-2006 (bcm)
Figure 5.5.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Azerbaijan in 2006
Figure 5.5.2.2 Gas production in Azerbaijan in 2000-2007 (bcm)
Figure 5.5.2.3. Participants of Shakh-Deniz project
Figure 5.5.2.4. Prices and volumes of Russian gas delivered to Azerbaijan
Figure 5.5.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Georgia in 2006
Figure 5.5.3.2. Gas consumption in Georgia in 2001-2006 (mcm)
Figure 5.5.3.3. Prices and volumes of imported Russian natural gas delivered to Georgia
Figure 5.5.4.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Belarus in 2006
Figure 5.5.4.2. Beltransgaz shareholder structure as October, 2007
Figure 5.5.5.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Ukraine in 2006
Figure 5.5.5.2. Transit of Russian gas via Ukraine (bcm)
Figure 5.5.5.3. Forecast of tariffs’s growth (US$/1,000cubic meters)
Figure 5.5.6.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Moldova in 2006
Figure 5.5.6.2. Gas deliveries to Moldova (bcm)
Figure 5.5.6.3. Moldovagas shareholder structure
Figure 5.5.7.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Latvia in 2006
Figure 5.5.7.2. Russian gas supplies and national gas consumption in Latvia (bcm)
Figure 5.5.7.3. Latvijas Gaze shareholder structure
Figure 5.5.8.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Lithuania in 2006
Figure 5.5.8.2. Russian gas supplies and national gas consumption in Lithuania (bcm)
Figure 5.5.8.3. Transit of Russian gas via Lithuania to Kaliningrad Region (mcm)
Figure 5.5.8.4. Lietuvos Dujos shareholder structure
Figure 5.5.9.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Estonia in 2006
Figure 5.5.9.2. Russian gas supplies and national gas consumption in Estoniа (bcm)
Figure 5.5.9.3. Eesti Gaas shareholder structure
Table 5.5.9.2. Outlook for Russian gas exports to Estonia and netback prices to the Russian border (2008-2020)
Figure 5.6.1.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in China in 2006
Figure 5.6.1.2. National gas production and consumption in China (bcm)
Figure 5.6.2.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Japan in 2006
Figure 5.6.2.2. Gas imports to Japan in 2006
Figure 5.6.3.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Republic of Korea in 2006
Figure 5.6.3.2. KOGAS shareholder structure
Figure 5.6.3.3. LNG imports to South Korea in 2006
Figure 5.6.4.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in Taiwan in 2006
Figure 5.6.4.2. LNG imports to Taiwan in 2006
Figure 5.6.5.1. Primary energy consumption by type of fuel in USA in 2006
Figure 5.6.5.2. Gas imports to USA in 2006
Figiure 5.6.5.3. Cost plus FOB prices at the outlet of the Shtokman LNG plant (US$ per million BTU)
Figure 6.2.1.1. Gas demand and supply scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 under ‘White’ scenario (bcm)
Figure 6.2.2.1. Gas demand and supply scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 under ‘Blue’ scenario (bcm)
Figure 6.2.3.1. Gas demand and supply scenarios for 2010, 2015 and 2020 under ‘ Red’ scenario (bcm)

Map 3.1. Nadym-Pur-Taz region – the main source of Russian gas production
Map 3.2. Yamal peninsula gas fields
Map 3.3. Gas fields of Eastern Siberia
Map 3.4. Gas fields of Sakhalin
Map 4.1. The United Gas Transmission System (UGTS)
Map 4.2. High loads of the gas transportation system in 2005-2010
Map 4.3. High loads of the gas transportation system in 2011-2015
Map 4.4. Central Asia-Center pipeline system
Map 4.5. Yamal-Europe pipeline system
Map 4.6. Nord Stream pipeline route
Map 4.8. Routes of gas deliveries by “South Stream”
Map 4.9. East Siberian gas transport options (option West)
Map 4.10. East Siberian gas transport options (option Center)
Map 4.11. East Siberian gas transport options (option East)
Map 4.12. Deliveries of gas to the Baltic LNG plant from the Unified Gas Supply System
Map 5.1.1.1. Belgium's gas transportation system
Map 5.1.2.1. France' gas transportation system
Map 5.1.2.2. Megal gas pipeline, through which supplies to France will be undertaken
Map 5.1.3.1. Gas transportation system of Germany
Map 5.1.4.1. Italy's gas transportation system
Map 5.1.5.1. The Netherlands’ gas transportation system
Map 5.1.6.1 Portugal’s gas transportation system
Map 5.1.7.1 Spain’s gas transportation system
Map 5.1.8.1 Switzerland’s gas transportation system
Map 5.1.9.1 United Kingdom’s gas transportation system
Map 5.2.1.1 Denmark’s gas transportation system
Map 5.2.2.1 Finland’s gas transportation system
Map 5.2.3.1 Sweden’s gas transportation system
Map 5.3.3.1 Austria’s gas transportation system
Map 5.3.2.1. Czech Republic’s gas transportation system
Map 5.3.3.1 Slovakia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.3.4.1 Poland’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.1.1. Albania’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.2.1. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.3.1 Bulgaria’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.4.1. Croatia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.5.1 Greece’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.5.2. Turkey-Greece-Italy gas pipeline
Map 5.4.6.1 Hungary’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.7.1 Macedonia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.8.1. Montenegro’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.9.1 Romania’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.10.1. Serbia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.11.1 Slovenia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.4.12.1 Turkey’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.1.1. Armenia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.2.1. Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum gas pipeline
Map 5.5.2.2. Azerbajan’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.3.1. Georgia’s gas transportation system

Map 5.5.4.1. Belarus’ gas transportation system
Map 5.5.5.1 Ukraine’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.6.1 Moldova’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.7.1 Latvia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.8.1. Lithuania’s gas transportation system
Map 5.5.9.1 Estonia’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.1.1 China’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.2.1 Japan’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.2.2. Distances between Sakhalin and consumer markets
Map 5.6.3.1. South Korea’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.4.1. Taiwan’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.5.1. USA’s gas transportation system
Map 5.6.5.2. The gas flow in the Atlantic part of the USA and regional prices compared to Henry Hub (dollars per million BTU)